Liverpool are generally reluctant to spend big in the transfer market, but despite England’s inflated prices, the Reds could find value in the Premier League.
I’ve said it once before but it bears repeating, this is going to be a big summer for Liverpool.
As most fans are still shaking off their title party hangovers, within the hierarchy there’s no doubt that minds are already focused on the future.
In the golden age of repeated success, coach Ronnie Moran would bring medals into the dressing room with no congratulations – only a reminder of the start date for pre-season training.
There’s always another mountain to climb and the best time to recruit is from a position of strength.
Arne Slot has had a whole season to decide who he wants to take with him on the journey toward further glory and whose stories have ended.
Sporting director Richard Hughes, in conjunction with Will Spearman and the data research team, have no doubt already taken Slot’s impressions and turned them into transfer targets.
Premier League targets
It seems as though Hughes hasn’t had to work too hard to find the next generation of Liverpool players, with heavy links to left-back Milos Kerkez and centre-back Dean Huijsen of his former club, Bournemouth.
Winger Antoine Semenyo is also well-liked, while the strongest link for the other priority position of centre forward is Newcastle’s Alexander Isak, despite the high fee and the prospect of Champions League football at St James’ Park next season.
There will always be links to players from within the Premier League, but modern history suggests that completing those deals may be unlikely. Across the last five seasons, Liverpool have signed just two players who have already featured in England’s top division.
Most people would agree that Diogo Jota and Alexis Mac Allister can both be called success stories, and yet for all of the strong rumours in that time for players such as Mason Mount, Antonee Robinson, Ola Aina, Rayan Ait-Nouri, Bryan Mbuemo and Mohammed Kudus, to name but six, there has been a reluctance to make a deal with their Premier League peers.
The final four on that list may still arrive this season, and the club did make serious bids for Romeo Lavia and Moises Caicedo, but increasingly Liverpool have looked further afield for their talents.
FSG have signed 16 first-team players on a permanent transfer in the 10 transfer windows since the club was last crowned champions. Ben Davies and Fabio Carvalho came from England’s second tier, while Calvin Ramsay (Scotland), Kostas Tsimikas (Greece), Cody Gakpo (Netherlands), Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez (Portugal) came from leagues that aren’t considered among Europe’s top five.
Tsimikas, Diaz and Nunez had played Champions League football prior to arriving at Anfield, but there were still question marks as to how they would perform when consistently tested at the highest level.
Trusting the Bundesliga
Federico Chiesa came from Serie A and Giorgi Mamardashvili will come from La Liga, but the overwhelming majority of players have been recruited from the Bundesliga.
The obvious reasons for this are the influence of German former manager Jurgen Klopp and temporary sporting director Jorg Schmadtke – just as the Portuguese connections of Klopp’s assistant manager Pep Lijnders and short-lived sporting director Julian Ward did in selecting Diaz and Nunez.
However, beyond that, there is a feeling that football in Germany is a close cousin to that which is played in England, particularly in terms of speed, physicality and intensity.
The belief that Wataru Endo could thrive here was the biggest indicator of this. A player older than Fabinho – the man he was signed to replace – his ability to win duels and possession at a high rate for Stuttgart earned him the trust that he could perform as well in the Premier League.
His Liverpool career has had its ups and downs, but in his current role as the finisher, he has been able to replicate his previous form.
Thiago Alcantara, Ibrahima Konate, Dominik Szoboszlai and Ryan Gravenberch have also brought their best over from the Bundesliga, but that alone doesn’t explain why Liverpool have been so reluctant to buy from home.
This is where finances come into the picture. The ‘Premier League premium’ isn’t a myth. Clubs in this country have a healthy stream of income thanks to their TV deals – worth £6.7 billion in the next four-year cycle.
This means that they can afford to make their best players prohibitively expensive, hence the £70 million price tag for Cheick Doucoure, or the potential £100 million fees for inexperienced talents like Adam Wharton and Tyler Dibling.
Value at a high price
Say what you like about FSG’s transfer strategy, but by now everyone knows where their priorities lie. They are looking for talent, but above all, they are looking for value. A bad transfer is worse than no transfer at all, with Manchester United acting as a constant reminder of why simply throwing money around doesn’t guarantee success.
And yet, value can still be found at a high price. When the player is that good, a ‘transformer’ as described by the recruitment team, then big money is available. For Van Dijk, £75 million was sent to Southampton and over £100 million was put on Brighton‘s table for Caicedo.
Talent might translate well from Germany, but there’s still nothing like proving you can perform in the Premier League. The distinct challenges of the Etihad, the Emirates and Old Trafford can be sampled in European competition, but it’s the in-your-face style of Bournemouth, the constant noise of Selhurst Park or the unpredictability of Fulham that can trip up any new recruit.
There are no weeks off, all 38 games require the best of every player. A team like Liverpool need someone who can hit the ground running.
Isak would definitely have that ability. In a world where truly elite number nines are thin on the ground, £130 million may still represent the best value, in comparison to £85 million for the promising but raw Hugo Ekitike from Eintracht Frankfurt.
The talk of Liverpool’s biggest ever transfer budget from Chris Bascombe of the Telegraph and Lewis Steele of the Mail would suggest that they are willing and able to invest in quality and quantity, meaning £130 million for one player would not harm the ability to strengthen in other areas.
After a season in which the squads of so many of England’s big clubs were found wanting, any player of talent will surely have multiple options. Liverpool will be in the box seat as the reigning champions, and Slot has proven himself not only a master tactician but also the kind of coach with whom players want to work.
The likes of Kerkez and Huijsen suit the way the Dutchman wants to play, and the combined fee of a reported £95 million could still allow Hughes to do all that needs to be done when player sales come into the equation.
You heard me – it’s going to be a big summer. And this time fans may not have to head to YouTube to run the rule over the latest recruit.
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