Premier League title race: Liverpool’s final 10 games compared with Arsenal & Man City

The Premier League title race is down to the final 10 games, with Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City all currently separated by goal difference or a few measly points.

Jurgen Klopp‘s side were not expected to be firmly in the hunt for the title, especially amid their absurd injury list, but they are well and truly in the fight.

And Klopp knows it, saying: “Are we really in that race from a performance point of view? [Against City] I saw a team that is in the right position, so now let’s see what we can do.”

Liverpool have a hectic schedule across three different competitions and will need to hope they see more return from injury than they do in the treatment in the room.

It has been a real squad effort to date, and that will remain the case until the final day, but how do the Reds’ final 10 Premier League fixtures compare to Arsenal and Man City?


The current standings

* Premier League table, March 11

Let’s first quickly take a look at the lay of the land.

After 28 games, Arsenal sit at the top thanks to a superior goal difference over Liverpool (+ seven), but they both have 64 points on the board.

City are close behind with 63 points, and they currently possess the lowest goal difference of the three teams – four less than Liverpool and 11 fewer than the Gunners.


The final 10

The Reds are well and truly in the thick of the title race, but it is a battle of consistency from here on out. Each of the three teams have an even split of home and away games remaining.

And one obvious battle in the run-in is Arsenal‘s visit to City straight after the March international break, so one or both will be dropping points.

But who has the more favourable run-in, let’s assess:

Liverpool: At the time of writing, they face three sides in the top six (Man United, Tottenham and Aston Villa), five sides in seventh-14th (Brighton, Fulham, West Ham, Crystal Palace and Wolves), and two in the bottom six (Everton and Sheffield United).

According to SoccerSTATS‘ analysis, Liverpool statistically have the easiest run-in, with their 10 remaining opponents amassing an average 1.38 points per game.

In the reverse fixtures against the abovementioned opponents, Liverpool amassed 23 points.

Arsenal: The Gunners face four teams in the top six (City, Spurs, Villa and Man United), four teams in the middle of the table (Chelsea, Brighton, Wolves and Bournemouth), and two in the bottom six (Luton and Everton).

As per SoccerSTATS’ analysis, Arsenal have the hardest run-in with their remaining opponents averaging 1.64 points per game.

In the reverse fixtures against the abovementioned opponents, the Gunners amassed 23 points.

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - Sunday, March 10, 2024: Liverpool's Alexis Mac Allister celebrates after scoring the his side's first equalising goal during the FA Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Manchester City FC at Anfield. (Photo by David Rawcliffe/Propaganda)

Man City: Guardiola’s side face three top-six showdowns (Arsenal, Spurs and Villa), five meetings with mid-table teams (Brighton, Palace, Wolves, Fulham and West Ham), and two against those at the bottom (Luton and Forest).

Continuing on with SoccerSTATS’ analysis, City have the second-easiest run-in of the three, with their opponents averaging 1.53 points per game.

In the reverse fixtures against the abovementioned opponents, City amassed 17 points.

Notably, Tottenham, Aston Villa, Brighton and Wolves will all play a big part in where the trophy ends up, as all three title contenders will face them in the run-in.

And if each team collects the same amount of points as they did in the reverse fixture, it will be decided by goal difference between Liverpool and Arsenal.

It’s going to go down to the wire!