The miserable 30% record vs. promoted clubs that Liverpool HAVE to change

When the margins are so tight in the Premier League, you cannot afford to be dropping needless points, but Liverpool are doing just that against teams they have to be beating.

Jurgen Klopp‘s men were far from their best at Luton on Sunday, off the pace and with little to no accuracy in front of goal despite carving out 24 shots compared to the hosts’ eight.

At the final whistle though, the scoreboard read 1-1 and Liverpool were again left to lament another poor showing against a newly-promoted team, something that has become all too familiar.

It is all well and good taking points off teams towards the top of the table, but if you do not do the same to those who sit at the bottom, you are leaving yourselves vulnerable.

It is nothing new for Klopp’s side as last season, they failed to win any of their three visits to promoted sides and continued in the same vein at Luton.

So, in the last four matches at the home of promoted teams across two seasons, the Reds have picked up just two points from a possible 12.

It is shocking, to say the least. And, in fact, the Reds have not won away from home against a promoted side in the Premier League since October 2021, when they won 5-0 at Watford.

Liverpool’s recent results on the road vs. promoted sides

LUTON, ENGLAND - Sunday, November 5, 2023: Liverpool's goalkeeper Alisson Becker is beaten as Luton Town's Tahith Chong scores the first goal during the FA Premier League match between Luton Town FC and Liverpool FC at Kenilworth Road. (Photo by David Rawcliffe/Propaganda)

  • Drew 1-1 vs. Luton – 2023/24
  • Lost 1-0 vs. Bournemouth – 2022/23
  • Lost 1-0 vs. Forest – 2022/23
  • Drew 2-2 vs. Fulham – 2022/23
  • Won 5-0 vs. Watford – 2021/22
  • Drew 3-3 vs. Brentford – 2021/22
  • Won 3-0 vs. Norwich – 2021/22
  • Won 2-1 vs. West Brom – 2020/21
  • Drew 1-1 vs. Leeds – 2020/21
  • Drew 1-1 vs. Fulham – 2020/21

While it may only be four games since that last win away win at Watford, the bigger picture makes for troublesome reading as since 2020/21, Liverpool have won only three of 10 visits to newly promoted sides.

In total, it makes for 14 points from a possible 30 – a win percentage of just 30, and one of those victories required an unbelievable finish from Alisson.

For direct comparison, Man City – who have won the last three titles – have played 11 times at newly promoted teams since 2020/21 and have collected 29 points from an available 33 – a win percentage of 81, making for quite the difference!

When the margin for error is so small, and Liverpool know that better than anyone, dropping points against sides they should be beating is only giving their rivals an advantage.

Take Tottenham for example, they have already made league visits to Bournemouth, Burnley and Luton and have left with nine points from nine.

Whether or not Klopp’s side have what it takes to compete for the title this season remains to be seen, but a starting point would be to turn their poor record on the road against promoted sides around at Burnley and Sheffield United.

They too will look to frustrate and sit deep, but Liverpool have to finally find a way to convert their chances and not allow them to dictate the game. Points cannot be handed out so cheaply, it has to change.